UN head worried about possible food crisis

In the two months since it began, the United Nations' Black Sea Grain Initiative has overseen shipment through the war zone of more than five million tonnes of grain from three Ukrainian ports via Turkey to 29 countries on three continents.

In remarks to the UN Security Council meeting in New York recently during an intense and otherwise gloomy session of the international body, Secretary General Antonio Guterres urged member nations to follow through on the grain deal. After seven months of conflict in Ukraine, this may be a window for diplomacy.

Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Secretary Sergey Lavrov began talking more publicly in September about their bizarre military operation in Ukraine, even as Ukrainian soldiers forced Russian retreats. What Putin and Lavrov have said lately to justify the invasion refer to Ukrainian discrimination against Russian residents of Ukraine, particularly in eastern regions occupied by Russian forces.

Their remarks about the Ukrainian state seem an insufficient explanation, however, for the terror caused by Russian troops.

Putin and Lavrov seem more sensible when they talk about the Black Sea Grain deal.

They also have Guterres's backing. In remarks to the Security Council in late September, the secretary general cited a 250-person prisoner swap as “a welcome development.” During the same speech, the former Portuguese prime minister touted the accomplishments of his grain initiative, claiming an influence on lower food prices.

“It is vital that these food shipments continue and increase, so commodity markets further stabilize,” Guterres said.

There are signs of lower-priced grain markets since the Black Sea initiative took effect, although weather and imminent harvest in northern regions as well as bumper crop wheat in Russia are also likely factors. Ukraine's grain has begun moving to market. Putin complains that Black Sea grains have gone predominantly to wealthy nations rather than to areas of greater need, as if he really cares.

But the Russians have also complained about European resistance to elements of the Black Sea deal designed to facilitate exports of Russian grain and fertilizers. Western sanctions against Russia specifically exempt food supplies, however, informal restrictions seem in effect. In a Sept. 26 article published on the website of the Washington-based, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, analyst Alexandera Prokopenko said banks and insurers remain “wary of doing business with Russia.”

Both Putin and Lavrov have referred in public remarks recently to the role of sanctions in blocking movement of Russian fertilizers and grains internationally. The Russian news agency Tass referred in a Sept. 26 article about fertilizer exports to an amount of 300,000 tonnes of material caught up in storage in Europe which its Russian processors have offered free of charge to African nations.

As the Ukraine war proceeds, it gets harder to see through the propaganda. Russian arguments about languishing sales of nitrogen fertilizer and improving distribution for its bumper harvest can be seen as an attempt to link anti-russian sanctions with concern about the adequacy of international food supplies.

Surely, it goes without saying: No Russian invasion; no global panic over fertilizer and food. Arguments about how this all began seem pretty much beside the point when what we really need is a plan for ending warfare.

Guterres argues it's essential that “all states remove every remaining obstacle to the export of Russian fertilizers immediately.”

“If the fertilizer market is not stabilized, next year could bring a food supply crisis,” Guterres said.

Why not take up the Russian offer of free fertilizer for Africa? It may lead somewhere useful.